OK, so we have mastered basic strategy and it's pretty clear that you should never split two 10's regardless of the dealer up card.
But is that really true, what if the dealer is showing a 6 against you two lovely looking 10's.
You must have the advantage and so maybe it's a good time to push it and win two bets? Is this the Casino just trying to stop you for doing it and losing the edge? Well, let's look at some of the math, you will soon see that although it's called 'Basic Strategy' it's been mathematically computed for the optimal results to reduce the house edge, so it says never split 10's there is a very good reason.
Let's look at the most tempting of situations when the deal is showing an up card of 6.
If you run the simulation of a $5 hand for 500 times where you have 10's against dealer up card of 6.
If you do not split the 10's your total bet of $2500 is expected to average you a profit of $1750.
If you split the 10's for the same 500 hands then you are now betting a total of $5000, so you are adding more exposure but the expected profit actually drops!!! You can expect a profit of around $1050.
This is based on the basic fact that your second card will not always been the strong one you are hoping for and the times the deals does not bust out.
The results will change as the dealers up card gets stronger, you will actually turn an expected profit to a loss if you start splitting when the dealer is showing a 9 or higher.
But is that really true, what if the dealer is showing a 6 against you two lovely looking 10's.
You must have the advantage and so maybe it's a good time to push it and win two bets? Is this the Casino just trying to stop you for doing it and losing the edge? Well, let's look at some of the math, you will soon see that although it's called 'Basic Strategy' it's been mathematically computed for the optimal results to reduce the house edge, so it says never split 10's there is a very good reason.
Let's look at the most tempting of situations when the deal is showing an up card of 6.
If you run the simulation of a $5 hand for 500 times where you have 10's against dealer up card of 6.
If you do not split the 10's your total bet of $2500 is expected to average you a profit of $1750.
If you split the 10's for the same 500 hands then you are now betting a total of $5000, so you are adding more exposure but the expected profit actually drops!!! You can expect a profit of around $1050.
This is based on the basic fact that your second card will not always been the strong one you are hoping for and the times the deals does not bust out.
The results will change as the dealers up card gets stronger, you will actually turn an expected profit to a loss if you start splitting when the dealer is showing a 9 or higher.
Source...