Possible Future Directions of the World Economy
The economic downturn that began in 2008 has hit the developed world far more severely than the developing part of the world.
One reason for this is that some decades ago the developed countries dominated the world in manufacturing.
Gradually, over the years other countries have advanced in the manufacture of goods ranging from steel and cement to automobiles and consumer goods.
Because of the lower standards of living in the developing world, and lower salaries, manufacturing costs are lower in the developing world.
Thus the manufacturing base of the world has been shifting away from the developed countries.
This particular cause for economic woes will not go away in future.
Rather, the manufacturing capabilities of the developing world are only likely to increase with time.
A second cause for the economic downturn has been an economy driven by debt.
Debt can accelerate economic progress in a situation where one is assured of a better economic situation in future.
Thus one goes in for purchase of expensive items like cars and homes through debt.
If the economy continues to improve, paying back the debt is not a difficult matter.
However, if the economy does not grow or goes into recession, then debts cannot be paid back and both individuals as well as financial institutions get into serious trouble.
If the recession is a temporary one, bailout of some manufacturing industries such as the automobile industry and some financial institutions can help tide over the problem.
Incase the recession is not a temporary one, then the money spent on bail out will soften the crisis over the short term only leading to even more serious economic trouble in future.
The monetizing of deficits caused by government bailouts is likely to lead to inflation making the economic situation worse.
The average citizen does not fully understand what inflation implies.
It is actually a hidden tax by government responsible for printing money.
Thus if a dollar purchases only ninety cents worth of goods as a result of inflation it implies that ten cents have been taxed away automatically from every citizen of a country in which such inflation has taken place.
Inflation is the most insidious form of taxation since it affects the poorest of citizens most.
The real solution does not lie in government bailouts.
The bad apples of the industry must be allowed to sink.
It will cause pain and suffering over the short term.
Over the long term though the economy will discover new directions.
In countries such as the US, that has abundant fertile land and abundant fresh water resources there is likely to be a greater emphasis on agriculture as compared to manufacturing in the coming decades.
There may also be a shift of population back to the rural areas and small towns from big cities as the economic transition takes place.
This movement will be accelerated as the world runs out of cheap energy sources and the corresponding cheap transportation across big cities.
If the scenario is as visualized agricultural land with adequate water supply will appreciate more steeply than urban properties.
In future banks may agree to provide loans for purchase of agricultural holdings more readily than for urban or suburban homes.
Therefore if you are living in the developed world and finding it difficult to acquire or retain a manufacturing based job do consider going back to the land as a means of livelihood.
It is true that those who are past the middle age may not be able to make the transition if they do not have any aptitude or experience of an agricultural way of life.
It is also not an option for teenagers or those in the early twenties.
That is an age when the attractions of a city charm a human most.
However, it is an option worth considering for those in their early thirties, especially persons who love nature and the countryside.
One reason for this is that some decades ago the developed countries dominated the world in manufacturing.
Gradually, over the years other countries have advanced in the manufacture of goods ranging from steel and cement to automobiles and consumer goods.
Because of the lower standards of living in the developing world, and lower salaries, manufacturing costs are lower in the developing world.
Thus the manufacturing base of the world has been shifting away from the developed countries.
This particular cause for economic woes will not go away in future.
Rather, the manufacturing capabilities of the developing world are only likely to increase with time.
A second cause for the economic downturn has been an economy driven by debt.
Debt can accelerate economic progress in a situation where one is assured of a better economic situation in future.
Thus one goes in for purchase of expensive items like cars and homes through debt.
If the economy continues to improve, paying back the debt is not a difficult matter.
However, if the economy does not grow or goes into recession, then debts cannot be paid back and both individuals as well as financial institutions get into serious trouble.
If the recession is a temporary one, bailout of some manufacturing industries such as the automobile industry and some financial institutions can help tide over the problem.
Incase the recession is not a temporary one, then the money spent on bail out will soften the crisis over the short term only leading to even more serious economic trouble in future.
The monetizing of deficits caused by government bailouts is likely to lead to inflation making the economic situation worse.
The average citizen does not fully understand what inflation implies.
It is actually a hidden tax by government responsible for printing money.
Thus if a dollar purchases only ninety cents worth of goods as a result of inflation it implies that ten cents have been taxed away automatically from every citizen of a country in which such inflation has taken place.
Inflation is the most insidious form of taxation since it affects the poorest of citizens most.
The real solution does not lie in government bailouts.
The bad apples of the industry must be allowed to sink.
It will cause pain and suffering over the short term.
Over the long term though the economy will discover new directions.
In countries such as the US, that has abundant fertile land and abundant fresh water resources there is likely to be a greater emphasis on agriculture as compared to manufacturing in the coming decades.
There may also be a shift of population back to the rural areas and small towns from big cities as the economic transition takes place.
This movement will be accelerated as the world runs out of cheap energy sources and the corresponding cheap transportation across big cities.
If the scenario is as visualized agricultural land with adequate water supply will appreciate more steeply than urban properties.
In future banks may agree to provide loans for purchase of agricultural holdings more readily than for urban or suburban homes.
Therefore if you are living in the developed world and finding it difficult to acquire or retain a manufacturing based job do consider going back to the land as a means of livelihood.
It is true that those who are past the middle age may not be able to make the transition if they do not have any aptitude or experience of an agricultural way of life.
It is also not an option for teenagers or those in the early twenties.
That is an age when the attractions of a city charm a human most.
However, it is an option worth considering for those in their early thirties, especially persons who love nature and the countryside.
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