What Happens to the Bond Market When the Stock Market Goes Down?
- When institutions sell stocks, they seek a safe place to park the cash, such as short-term Treasury securities, which typically go up when stocks sell off.
- When interest rates rise, both stocks and bonds go down because inflation is generally considered bad for both stocks and bonds. Investors sell both, seeking safety in cash or gold.
- Stocks generally decline when the economy goes into a recession. Interest rates typically fall in a recession, which is generally bullish for bonds, so they should rise. However, a recession may be bad for high-yield bonds whose issuers may not be able to make interest payments in an economic downturn, so high-yield bonds decline.
State tax receipts also decline in a recession, raising fears of default in lower-quality municipal bonds, so those can decline too. On the other hand, U.S. Government debt and high-quality bonds issued by blue-chip companies are considered safe havens in a recession and may rise.
Stocks Down, Treasuries Up
Bonds Down, Stocks Down
No or Limited Correlation
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