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The Case for Cambodia

Thailand and Cambodia have rich shared histories and deep reservoirs of nationalist feeling. Cambodia, the smaller and poorer of the two, has long had a bone to pick with Thailand for what it sees as shabby treatment in the past.

In 1431, the Khmer (Cambodian) Empire came to an end when Siamese (Thai) forces invaded Angkor Thom. The Empire’s decline came about in part from successive incursions by Siamese troops.


During the "dark ages" that followed, Siamese incursions weakened the Cambodian government further. King Naresuna invaded the capital city of Lovek in 1594, and succeeding Thai monarchs competed with Vietnam over control of the beleaguered state.

These conflicts allowed the French to establish control over the severely weakened Cambodian monarchy in 1863. World War II led to more cause for resentment, as Thailand occupied Angkor Wat and many parts of western Cambodia for the duration of the conflict.

International law helped turn the tide in Cambodia's favor in 1962, when the International Court of Justice decided that Preah Vihear lay in Cambodian territory.

Should Thailand decide to back its claim up with force, Cambodia will find itself at a logistical disadvantage (its aging hardware is no match for Thailand's cutting-edge American-made weaponry), but might be able to wage a successful guerrilla war with the help of its battle-tested ex-Khmer Rouge soldiers.

The Case for Thailand

Ironically, the July UNESCO bid was supported by the Thai government at the time.

Nationalists believe that vested business interests motivated then-Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra to back Cambodia.

The political consequences were swift. The foreign minister responsible, Noppadol Pattama, was forced to resign after the Thai Constitutional Court ruled that he violated the Thai Constitution for supporting Cambodia's UNESCO bid.

Thai nationalists, led by the People's Alliance for Democracy, mobilized mass demonstrations to protest what they perceived as a corrupt decision by the government.

In their eyes, Preah Vihear was a bargaining chip exchanged by the Thaksin government for business concessions in the Cambodian province of Koh Kong, as well as drilling rights in disputed waters off the Thai-Cambodian border.

There's little evidence to support this theory, but it's helped fuel continuous street protests nevertheless. The present government headed by Abhisit Vejjajiva may be tempted to fight a border war to curry support with the fervently royalist Thai nationalist movement.

Where It Stands

Both Cambodia and Thailand have called for UN intervention; Cambodian PM Hun Sen has asked the U.N. to send troops for a "buffer zone" around the temple.

The U.S. State Department says it has "raised our concerns with senior officials" on both sides, according to spokesman Philip Crowley, and asked both sides to "exercise maximum restraint and take all necessary steps to reduce tensions."

ASEAN has also volunteered to help, with Indonesian Foreign Minister and current ASEAN chairman Marty Natalegawa flying into Phnom Penh on February 7 to offer his mediation services. Today, as in 2008, a truce was negotiated on the local commander level, but Michael Vatikiotis of the MacArthur Foundation believes higher-level negotiations may be needed for a longer-lasting peace in the area.

In the last round of fighting along the border in October 2008, the two sides reached agreement on a ceasefire at the local commander level. The same approach was deployed when fighting broke out this time, but tensions are running very high and local ceasefires brokered at the field level may only provide temporary respite.

Vatikiotis suggests that a long-term solution may be found in a joint development scheme that could be worked out if both sides decide to lay down their arms.

"Joint development is a way of maximising potential without having to fully resolve issues of sovereignty," explains Vatikiotis, underscoring the 1962 U.N. ruling and the near-impossibility of a verdict reversal. "Joint development would also take the sting out of any decision to declare the temple a World Heritage site, and hold out the promise of shared revenues from tourism."

Vatikiotis' suggestion seems like a long shot at the moment; with five dead, 45 injured, and 6,000 fleeing the nearby villages, the bad blood over Preah Vihear seems bound to keep flowing for some time yet.