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In The Developing World, Solar Is Cheaper Than Fossil Fuels

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The falling cost of LED lighting, batteries, and solar panels, together with innovative business plans, are allowing millions of households in Africa and elsewhere to switch from crude kerosene lamps to cleaner and safer electric lighting. For many, this offers a means to charge their mobile phones, which are becoming ubiquitous in Africa, instead of having to rent a charger.

Technology advances are opening up a huge new market for solar power: the approximately 1.3 billion people around the world who don't have access to grid electricity. Even though they are typically very poor, these people have to pay far more for lighting than people in rich countries because they use inefficient kerosene lamps. While in most parts of the world solar power typically costs far more than electricity from conventional power plantsespecially when including battery costsfor some people, solar power makes economic sense because it costs half as much as lighting with kerosene.

Hundreds of companies are swooping in to grab a piece of this market.

"This sector has exploded," says Richenda Van Leeuwen, senior director for the Energy and Climate team at the United Nations Foundation. "There's been a sea change in the last five years."

The sudden interest is fueled by the advent of relatively low-cost LEDs, she says. Not long ago, powering lightbulbs required a solar panel that could generate 20 to 30 watts, since only incandescent lightbulbs were affordable. LEDs are far more efficient. Now people can have bright lighting using a panel that only generates a couple of watts of power, Van Leeuwen says.

But such technological improvements aren't quite enough to open up the market. High-quality LED systems, with a pair of lamps and enough battery storage for several hours of lighting, cost less than $50. The systems can pay for themselves in less than two years, but the upfront cost is still too steep for many people.

Eight19, a company based in Cambridge, U.K., is one of several companies offering some type of payment plan to make the systems affordable. Customers pay $10 for the solar lighting system, which includes a 2.5-watt solar panel, two LED overhead lamps, and a lithium-iron phosphate battery pack. Then they pay a weekly fee for the power it generates.

According to ElectroniCast Consultants, the worldwide use of LED linear tube lamps is forecast increase at a dramatic average annual growth rate of 75 percent (2011-2016), before speeding-up the pace from 2016-2021. The use of SSL (solid-state lighting) LED linear tube lamps in the Government controlled general lighting (interior and exterior) lighting applications is currently the market leader; however, the commercial/ industrial lighting category is forecast for even faster growth and will eventually take the leadership role. All of the selected end-user groups (applications) are forecast for very strong growth rates.

Consumption Forecast: $2.88 Billion in 2021 According to ElectroniCast Consultants, the global consumption of LED linear tube lamps, which are used in new construction, retrofitting and replacement applications for fluorescent linear tube lamps, reached 8.3 million in 2011, up from $4.8 million in 2010. In the year 2016, the worldwide consumption value is forecast to reach $136.5 million. In the year 2021, the worldwide consumption value is forecast to reach $2.88 billion. Market forecast data in this study report refers to consumption (use) for a particular calendar year; therefore, this data is not cumulative data.

In general speaking, 12V LED has become more and more affordable, therefore auto LED bulbs have been used widely.
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