With so many different variables affecting the outcome of a horse race, how are you supposed to pick winners consistently? Handicapping is a difficult endeavor, even on a good day.
If you can pick 40 percent winners, you are an excellent handicapper.
Still, there is much room for error and even greater room for losing your bankroll during the 60 percent that you miss on.
One way to pick more winners is to give heed to the track bias of your selected track.
A track bias is a catch-all term for a factor that is related to the running surface that influences the outcome of a race.
Deciding if there is actually a bias at your home track is a difficult thing to do.
For one, you need a rather large sample size to determine if a bias exists.
One or two races will not tell you what is going on with a track bias; you need to study the outcome of many races.
Sometimes this is impossible because a dry fast surface will respond differently than a wet sloppy surface will; in other words the same track might have a different bias on two different days.
Knowing how to determine if a track bias exists and how it will influence the outcome of the race is a fine art.
Even if a bias does exist, you need the right horses and right conditions for you to make a winning selection.
This is why you can't determine a track bias after just one race.
Perhaps the horse running on the rail doesn't have the endurance to run a route race.
In this instance there isn't actually a slow inside, it is the horse's fault.
But if you see horses fading throughout the course of the day when they take the rail position, you can then begin to assume that a dead rail exists.
Past performance sheets will help you to a degree with this.
Perhaps the far outside post position seldom wins in sprint races.
This is something that can be determined by a careful study of past performances or by watching race replays.
When this happens, you can assume that the outside position is slower than the inside rail.
In a sprint race, if the gate is close to the first turn, outside positions are often at a disadvantage since they have to run a longer distance.
Add these two situations together and you will have a losing horse most of the time.
There are always exceptions to the track bias theory.
Knowing how to spot a standout horse will benefit you, then.
Taking the outside post position example a bit further, if you have a horse that is very quick out of the gate, the slow outside surface will not be a factor since this horse is likely to sprint to the front and claim an inside position for the first turn.
Track biases can be difficult to spot, but once you do find them, they can drastically improve your handicapping.
Keep this in mind the next time you sit down to study your next racing card.
If you can pick 40 percent winners, you are an excellent handicapper.
Still, there is much room for error and even greater room for losing your bankroll during the 60 percent that you miss on.
One way to pick more winners is to give heed to the track bias of your selected track.
A track bias is a catch-all term for a factor that is related to the running surface that influences the outcome of a race.
Deciding if there is actually a bias at your home track is a difficult thing to do.
For one, you need a rather large sample size to determine if a bias exists.
One or two races will not tell you what is going on with a track bias; you need to study the outcome of many races.
Sometimes this is impossible because a dry fast surface will respond differently than a wet sloppy surface will; in other words the same track might have a different bias on two different days.
Knowing how to determine if a track bias exists and how it will influence the outcome of the race is a fine art.
Even if a bias does exist, you need the right horses and right conditions for you to make a winning selection.
This is why you can't determine a track bias after just one race.
Perhaps the horse running on the rail doesn't have the endurance to run a route race.
In this instance there isn't actually a slow inside, it is the horse's fault.
But if you see horses fading throughout the course of the day when they take the rail position, you can then begin to assume that a dead rail exists.
Past performance sheets will help you to a degree with this.
Perhaps the far outside post position seldom wins in sprint races.
This is something that can be determined by a careful study of past performances or by watching race replays.
When this happens, you can assume that the outside position is slower than the inside rail.
In a sprint race, if the gate is close to the first turn, outside positions are often at a disadvantage since they have to run a longer distance.
Add these two situations together and you will have a losing horse most of the time.
There are always exceptions to the track bias theory.
Knowing how to spot a standout horse will benefit you, then.
Taking the outside post position example a bit further, if you have a horse that is very quick out of the gate, the slow outside surface will not be a factor since this horse is likely to sprint to the front and claim an inside position for the first turn.
Track biases can be difficult to spot, but once you do find them, they can drastically improve your handicapping.
Keep this in mind the next time you sit down to study your next racing card.
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