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Fort Mcmurray Growth Trends

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At 63,000 square kilometers, the Regional Municipality of Wood Buffalo, located in Northern Alberta, is one of the largest municipalities by area in North America. It also boasts one of the largest oil sands deposits in the world, leading to tremendous growth in oil production, the local economy and population. Population explosion, in particular, raises the need for more living and working spaces in the region.

Oil production is projected to increase from 1.6 million barrels per day to nearly 7 million over the next two decades. This increased production is expected to generate more than 50,000 permanent oil sands jobs in the region and launch a population increase of more than 125,000 people.

Explosive population growth is nothing new to this area. In the early 1960s, Fort McMurray's population was about 1,200. Twenty years later, nearly 28,000 people called the city home.

Though the municipality is wide spread in area, nearly three-fourths of its population is concentrated in Fort McMurray. The community had a population of 76,800 in 2010, with about 13,000 living its downtown City Centre. With the anticipated growth due to the oil sands, nearly 200,000 people will make the city home by 2030, representing 85% of the region's residents.

Many of these new residents are expected to settle in the City Centre. With redevelopment comes market segments that will be attracted to downtown living, including younger individuals who work downtown, empty nesters attracted to downtown amenities, and people working in the arts community.

This trend will lead to a need for more apartments in downtown Fort McMurray. Projected demand for multi-family residential units in the City Centre could be between 6,000 and 10,000 units. Under the most aggressive assumptions, the need for downtown housing could be as high as 27,000 more units than currently offered.

While the economy will continue to be dominated by the oil and gas sector, the proportion of other industries in relation to the overall economy is expected to grow. Industry growth is anticipated in health care and social services, wholesale trade, retail trade, finance and real estate, and business services.

Leaders project that by 2015, there will be a need for 1 million square feet of additional commercial space for 4,400 additional workers in the City Centre. By 2030, the downtown district will need to add 5.3 million square feet of commercial space to house an additional 23,300 new workers. More aggressive projections call for twice as much space for twice as many new workers by 2015 and 2030.

Economic growth won't just occur downtown. The community's 2011 Municipal Development Plan indicates that it will need more than 40,000 acres of additional land by 2030 to meet anticipated growth in the area.

While population and economic growth are good problems to have, the high rate of growth poses challenges for ensuring enough accommodations in Fort McMurray to live and work.
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