Most handicappers would agree that speed and class are the top two factors for evaluating the runners in a race. While you may argue that several other factors, when taken to the extreme, may have more influence in a race, most of the time one of these two top factors points to the winner. Some people even say they are interchangeable and that one is the same as the other.
Both are definitely units of measure that may be used to compare horses based on their past performances. In estimating class I like to see that a horse has succeeded in showing some competitiveness in a race before I pin the class of that race on the horse. For instance, if a horse finished in the money in a $50,000 handicap race, then that is sufficient for me to say that runner will be competitive in a race for a smaller purse.
The same is true in claiming races. If a horse ran well in a $20,000 claiming race and is now in a $10,000 claimer, then I think it will have an excellent chance to win, providing, of course, that the other runners are taken into account and there is no horse that overlays the field.
In the matter of comparing these two units of measure it gets a lot trickier. If that same horse that exits the $20,000 claiming race managed a speed rating of 80 and is facing a horse in the $10,000 claimer who has posted two ratings over 90, is it still capable of winning? Pace handicapping may answer that question, but you may also conclude that the horses in the higher priced claiming race were of a higher caliber and therefore, that horse used more energy to be competitive throughout the race. In the $10,000 event it may still compete and should be expected to post a higher speed figure.
It is to be expected that a horse will post a higher speed figure against a weaker field because the internal fractions will be softer, but of course, while we may expect that there are no guarantees. That's what makes horse racing handicapping so difficult and challenging. A horse player who focuses on these two factors and learns to make the adjustments to projected speed figures will be able to make comparisons as long as he or she also checks the secondary factors for one of the extremes mentioned before. Of course, it should always be remembered that horse racing is a risky business.
Both are definitely units of measure that may be used to compare horses based on their past performances. In estimating class I like to see that a horse has succeeded in showing some competitiveness in a race before I pin the class of that race on the horse. For instance, if a horse finished in the money in a $50,000 handicap race, then that is sufficient for me to say that runner will be competitive in a race for a smaller purse.
The same is true in claiming races. If a horse ran well in a $20,000 claiming race and is now in a $10,000 claimer, then I think it will have an excellent chance to win, providing, of course, that the other runners are taken into account and there is no horse that overlays the field.
In the matter of comparing these two units of measure it gets a lot trickier. If that same horse that exits the $20,000 claiming race managed a speed rating of 80 and is facing a horse in the $10,000 claimer who has posted two ratings over 90, is it still capable of winning? Pace handicapping may answer that question, but you may also conclude that the horses in the higher priced claiming race were of a higher caliber and therefore, that horse used more energy to be competitive throughout the race. In the $10,000 event it may still compete and should be expected to post a higher speed figure.
It is to be expected that a horse will post a higher speed figure against a weaker field because the internal fractions will be softer, but of course, while we may expect that there are no guarantees. That's what makes horse racing handicapping so difficult and challenging. A horse player who focuses on these two factors and learns to make the adjustments to projected speed figures will be able to make comparisons as long as he or she also checks the secondary factors for one of the extremes mentioned before. Of course, it should always be remembered that horse racing is a risky business.
Source...